Price outlook
What Cavite farmers will likely be paid for three crops in November.
In November, ampalaya will likely stay about the same at the farm.
The latest government record, October 2026, was 69 pesos per kilo. For November 2026: about 70 pesos per kilo, usually between 61 and 80 pesos.
What this means
Ampalaya should cost about the same in November.
This is the usual price paid to Cavite farmers at the farm, not a seller's price on AniUgnay.
Based on government (PSA) farm prices up to October 2026. Sample figures for the capstone.
Why November looks like this
SeasonNovember prices usually run about 9% lower than October's.
RainOctober had about normal rain, so the weather mostly follows the usual pattern.
Recent pricesPrices went down over the last three months.
Show the numbers
Farm price, ₱ per kilo
Show the monthly prices
| Month | Farm price (PSA) | Estimate | Likely range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2026 | ₱70.49 (past prices only ₱70.06) | ₱61.20–₱79.78 | |
| Oct 2026 | ₱68.92 | ||
| Sep 2026 | ₱83.37 | ||
| Aug 2026 | ₱71.64 | ||
| Jul 2026 | ₱85.99 | ||
| Jun 2026 | ₱75.59 | ||
| May 2026 | ₱63.09 | ||
| Apr 2026 | ₱60.41 | ||
| Mar 2026 | ₱56.53 | ||
| Feb 2026 | ₱63.17 | ||
| Jan 2026 | ₱58.82 | ||
| Dec 2025 | ₱59.49 | ||
| Nov 2025 | ₱69.35 | ||
| Oct 2025 | ₱90.25 | ||
| Sep 2025 | ₱85.22 | ||
| Aug 2025 | ₱81.26 | ||
| Jul 2025 | ₱76.90 | ||
| Jun 2025 | ₱64.50 | ||
| May 2025 | ₱63.26 | ||
| Apr 2025 | ₱54.62 | ||
| Mar 2025 | ₱54.21 | ||
| Feb 2025 | ₱53.09 | ||
| Jan 2025 | ₱57.88 | ||
| Dec 2024 | ₱62.27 | ||
| Nov 2024 | ₱72.38 |
Rain in Cavite last month: Normal(mm)
Does weather make the guess better?
How accurate the guess was
Weather made it 15.8% more accurate
On two years the models never saw (Nov 2024 to Oct 2026), the estimate for ampalaya missed by less once rainfall, temperature and humidity were added.
- Prices + weatherNov estimate ₱70.49
Off by ₱5.48 per kilo on average in testing
- Past prices onlyNov estimate ₱70.06
Off by ₱6.51 per kilo on average in testing
Shorter bar, smaller miss. Each is the better of Random Forest and Gradient Boosting for its inputs (Gradient Boosting both times). Illustrative until the models are trained.
Month by month, on the test years
Show the test months
| Month | Farm price (PSA) | With weather | Past prices only |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | ₱68.92 | ₱66.60 | ₱70.93 |
| Sep 2026 | ₱83.37 | ₱84.53 | ₱82.82 |
| Aug 2026 | ₱71.64 | ₱75.09 | ₱80.38 |
| Jul 2026 | ₱85.99 | ₱81.43 | ₱85.44 |
| Jun 2026 | ₱75.59 | ₱84.55 | ₱77.45 |
| May 2026 | ₱63.09 | ₱59.40 | ₱55.34 |
| Apr 2026 | ₱60.41 | ₱65.00 | ₱64.70 |
| Mar 2026 | ₱56.53 | ₱48.61 | ₱56.37 |
| Feb 2026 | ₱63.17 | ₱63.32 | ₱66.52 |
| Jan 2026 | ₱58.82 | ₱59.28 | ₱62.58 |
| Dec 2025 | ₱59.49 | ₱58.39 | ₱68.52 |
| Nov 2025 | ₱69.35 | ₱68.55 | ₱73.42 |
| Oct 2025 | ₱90.25 | ₱95.04 | ₱88.39 |
| Sep 2025 | ₱85.22 | ₱81.23 | ₱89.49 |
| Aug 2025 | ₱81.26 | ₱81.65 | ₱78.65 |
| Jul 2025 | ₱76.90 | ₱83.43 | ₱73.57 |
| Jun 2025 | ₱64.50 | ₱68.29 | ₱57.72 |
| May 2025 | ₱63.26 | ₱64.03 | ₱63.07 |
| Apr 2025 | ₱54.62 | ₱56.71 | ₱61.23 |
| Mar 2025 | ₱54.21 | ₱53.83 | ₱65.91 |
| Feb 2025 | ₱53.09 | ₱55.08 | ₱53.05 |
| Jan 2025 | ₱57.88 | ₱54.92 | ₱49.64 |
| Dec 2024 | ₱62.27 | ₱54.95 | ₱73.69 |
| Nov 2024 | ₱72.38 | ₱75.28 | ₱62.73 |
How the estimate is made
- RecordsPSA monthly farmgate prices for Cavite, November 2016 to October 2026: 120 months, 3 of them without a record and left as gaps. Monthly rainfall, temperature and humidity come from ERA5.
- InputsThe past-prices model sees the last 1, 2, 3 and 12 months of prices and the calendar month. The weather model also sees the previous months' rainfall, temperature and humidity.
- TestingRandom Forest and Gradient Boosting learn from November 2016 to October 2024, then predict each month of November 2024 to October 2026 without seeing it first. The one with the lower average error is used.
- The estimateOne number for November 2026, the month after the latest record, plus a likely range sized from the test error. It describes the whole province, not any one farm. Real PSA figures arrive about two months late, so with real data the estimate will usually be for the current or a just-passed month.
Rain, temperature and humidity
October 2026 rain: Normal
Monthly Cavite weather (ERA5 reanalysis). October 2026 rainfall was 197 mm, close to normal. The dashed line on the rainfall chart is the usual amount for each month.
Rainfall
Oct: 197 mm
Temperature
Oct: 27.4 °C
Humidity
Oct: 83%
Show the weather numbers
| Month | Rainfall | Normal | Temperature | Humidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | 197 mm | 210 mm | 27.4 °C | 83% |
| Sep 2026 | 334 mm | 330 mm | 27.6 °C | 86% |
| Aug 2026 | 513 mm | 440 mm | 28.1 °C | 87% |
| Jul 2026 | 345 mm | 390 mm | 27.7 °C | 85% |
| Jun 2026 | 292 mm | 260 mm | 28.4 °C | 81% |
| May 2026 | 113 mm | 140 mm | 29.1 °C | 75% |
| Apr 2026 | 26 mm | 25 mm | 29.3 °C | 71% |
| Mar 2026 | 19 mm | 15 mm | 27.7 °C | 69% |
| Feb 2026 | 10 mm | 12 mm | 26.8 °C | 72% |
| Jan 2026 | 12 mm | 18 mm | 25.8 °C | 74% |
| Dec 2025 | 66 mm | 55 mm | 26.3 °C | 77% |
| Nov 2025 | 112 mm | 110 mm | 27.0 °C | 79% |
| Oct 2025 | 212 mm | 210 mm | 28.0 °C | 80% |
| Sep 2025 | 774 mm | 330 mm | 27.5 °C | 86% |
| Aug 2025 | 377 mm | 440 mm | 27.6 °C | 85% |
| Jul 2025 | 403 mm | 390 mm | 27.3 °C | 85% |
| Jun 2025 | 238 mm | 260 mm | 28.8 °C | 82% |
| May 2025 | 170 mm | 140 mm | 29.4 °C | 74% |
| Apr 2025 | 19 mm | 25 mm | 29.1 °C | 72% |
| Mar 2025 | 17 mm | 15 mm | 27.9 °C | 72% |
| Feb 2025 | 13 mm | 12 mm | 27.1 °C | 73% |
| Jan 2025 | 18 mm | 18 mm | 26.2 °C | 75% |
| Dec 2024 | 50 mm | 55 mm | 26.2 °C | 75% |
| Nov 2024 | 66 mm | 110 mm | 27.5 °C | 80% |
Ampalaya on the market today
Farmgate is not retail. Farmgate is what farmers receive at the farm. A farm's price on AniUgnay also covers picking, sorting, packing and getting it to you, and each farm sets its own. The estimate is information for planning, not advice.